Turtle Sense / 2015 Season Results

We monitored nests at the Cape Hatteras National Seashore during 2015. For detailed day-by-day records of our predictions, please go to our Google Group

Prediction methodology
Data was uploaded to our server every 4 hours after 40 days of incubation. An automated process creates graphs of the data. Predictions were made by Samuel Wantman by manually looking at those graphs. The data was typically interpreted only once a day, at the end of the day (around Midnight PST or 3AM local time). If frequent wide fluctuations in the data had been observed for the preceding day (usually following a large dip in the data), nestlings were predicted to emerge 5 days after the start of the activity. This was typically 4 days after the observation. Sometimes a day of looking at the data was missed so a prediction might only be for 3 days after. If 60 days went by without any signs of hatching activity a prediction was made that the nest would be unproductive.

Graphs of monitored nests
''Note: The x-axis is the number of days since the nest was discovered. This number is likely off by a few hours. Nests are discovered during turtle patrol and a sensor is installed in the nest at that time and registered in the database. Since the nest was laid sometime during the previous night, the exact incubation time might be off. Similarly, the date that emergence was first observed is often the morning after when the turtle patrol notes tracks in the sand. Both of these errors tend to cancel each other out. Note that NH002 is off by 8 days because it was not registered until 8 days after the nest was discovered. Activity several days after emergence at the right edge of charts is from excavation of the nests.''