Turtle Sense / 2015 Season Results - Revision history

Sam: /* Graphs of monitored nests */ fixes

2016-01-23T10:05:25Z

Graphs of monitored nests: fixes

Sam: /* Graphs of monitored nests */ fix typo

2016-01-23T09:54:23Z

Graphs of monitored nests: fix typo

Sam: /* Graphs of monitored nests */

2016-01-23T09:47:54Z

Graphs of monitored nests

Sam: completed chart

2016-01-23T09:35:49Z

completed chart

Sam: updated data

2016-01-23T08:36:35Z

updated data

Sam: Prediction methodology

2016-01-23T04:18:30Z

Prediction methodology

Sam: Note and start of conversions

2016-01-23T04:00:20Z

Note and start of conversions

Sam: update chart to use day instead of date (dates need to be converted)

2016-01-23T02:34:48Z

update chart to use day instead of date (dates need to be converted)

Sam at 00:16, 30 December 2015

2015-12-30T00:16:01Z

Sam: 7R update

2015-08-28T06:38:45Z

7R update

@@ Line 68: / Line 68: @@
 |[[File:2015 - NH143R sensor AA0006.png|250px]]||NH143R||AA0006||--- || --- || 57? || Unit stopped reporting on day 45.  No prediction made.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH151R sensor AA0007.png|250px]]||NH056||AA0027||--- || --- || --- || No predictions. Only 2 live hatchlings (one emerged).  Major disturbances to nest from Hurricane Joaquin.
+|[[File:2015 - NH151R sensor AA0007.png|250px]]||NH151R||AA0007||--- || --- || --- || No predictions. Only 2 live hatchlings (one emerged).  Major disturbances to nest from Hurricane Joaquin.
 |-
 |[[File:2015 - NH157 sensor AA0013.png|250px]]||NH157||AA0013||--- || --- || --- || Nest and equipment completely washed away by severe weather.  Heavy erosion and scarping.

@@ Line 58: / Line 58: @@
 |[[File:2015 - NH105 sensor AA0018.png|250px]]||NH105||AA0018||--- || --- || --- || lots of overwashes seen in data.  No prediction made.  No live hatchlings.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH134R sensor AA0019.png|250px]]||NH135R||AA0019||58 || 61 or later || 65 || roughly half hatched and emerged. Later nests seem to emerge longer than 5 days after hatching activity noticed in data.
+|[[File:2015 - NH134R sensor AA0019.png|250px]]||NH134R||AA0019||58 || 61 or later || 65 || roughly half hatched and emerged. Later nests seem to emerge longer than 5 days after hatching activity noticed in data.
 |-
 |[[File:2015 - NH138 sensor AA0009.png|250px]]||NH138||AA0009||54 || 58 or later || 61 || Excavated on day 61 due to overwash.  Earlier traces of emergence may not have been seen.

@@ Line 6: / Line 6: @@
 ==Graphs of monitored nests==
-''Note:  The x-axis is the number of days since the nest was discovered.  This number is likely off by a few hours.  Nests are discovered during turtle patrol and a sensor is installed in the nest at that time and registered in the database.  Since the nest was laid sometime during the previous night, the exact incubation time might be off. Similarly, the date that emergence was first observed is often the morning after when the turtle patrol notes tracks in the sand. Both of these errors tend to cancel each other out.  Note that NH002 is off by 8 days because it was not registered until 8 days after the nest was discovered.''
+''Note:  The x-axis is the number of days since the nest was discovered.  This number is likely off by a few hours.  Nests are discovered during turtle patrol and a sensor is installed in the nest at that time and registered in the database.  Since the nest was laid sometime during the previous night, the exact incubation time might be off. Similarly, the date that emergence was first observed is often the morning after when the turtle patrol notes tracks in the sand. Both of these errors tend to cancel each other out.  Note that NH002 is off by 8 days because it was not registered until 8 days after the nest was discovered.  Activity several days after emergence at the right edge of charts is from excavation of the nests.''
 {| class="wikitable sortable"

@@ Line 47: / Line 47: @@
 |-
 |[[File:2015 - NH058 (8-17) sensor AA0028.png|250px]]||NH058||AA0028||51 || 55 || 55 || The graph is from August 17th (day 53).  data quieted on Tuesday the 18th.  There were still 28 hatchlings in the nest when excavated on the 21st.
 |}

@@ Line 18: / Line 18: @@
 ! style="text-align:left;" class="unsortable"|Notes;
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH007R after emergence.png|250px]]||NH007R||AA0009||---||---||July 20||  There was too much noise in this nest to be able to make any predictions.  Very early -- day 51.  20+ emerged the following day.  No obvious explanation for all the noise.  The sensor had moved from its installation position in the nest.  Might be a faulty sensor.
+|[[File:2015 - NH007R after emergence.png|250px]]||NH007R||AA0009||---||---||51||  There was too much noise in this nest to be able to make any predictions.  This was a very early nest -- day 51.  No obvious explanation for all the noise.  The sensor had moved from its installation position in the nest.  Might be a faulty sensor.
 |-
 |[[File:2015 - AA0005 after emergence (7-22).png|250px]]||NH002||AA0005||48 (56) revised next day ||52 (60)||52 (60)||(''Note, the days listed in the x-axis of this chart is off by 8 days.  Add 8 to the numbers you see.'') Emergence was predicted for Tuesday evening, July 21st. Turtle patrol reported 1 hatching track and a depression on 07/22. (More might have come out, there was a severe rain storm the previous night.)
@@ Line 34: / Line 34: @@
 |[[File:2015 - NH023 (8-11) sensor AA0017.png|250px]]||NH023||AA0017|| 53 ||58 || 57 || The morning of 8/7 a hatchling was found wandering near the dunes.  Rain washed out the tracks so it is not certain how many emerged the evening of 8/6.  There was a record of 9 hatchlings on the 9th and 5 on the 10th.    A total of 85 eggshells were counted.  It seems likely that most of the hatchlings left on Thursday evening (8/6).
 |-
-||[[File:2015 - NH024 (8-10) sensor AA0025.png|250px]]||NH024||AA0025|| || Aug 6 || Aug 7 ||  More than 20 tracks were counted the morning of the 8th.  On 8/9 the activity recorded was from the nest being washed out. Very few hatched or unhatched were found after the washout, so it is unclear exactly what happened.
+||[[File:2015 - NH024 (8-10) sensor AA0025.png|250px]]||NH024||AA0025|| 50 || 55 || 56 ||  More than 20 tracks were counted the morning of the 8th.  On 8/9 the activity recorded was from the nest being washed out. Very few hatched or unhatched were found after the washout, so it is unclear exactly what happened.
 |-
 |[[File:2015 - NH013 (8-12) sensor AA0010.png|250px]]||NH013||AA0010|| --- || --- || --- || This nest was thought to be infertile, and it was. Excavated on Aug 12
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH036 (8-13) sensor AA0024.png|250px]]||NH036||AA0024|| || Aug 12 || Aug 12|| 20+ tracks noticed by Turtle Patrol on 8/13. Only about 1/4 of the eggs hatched.
+|[[File:2015 - NH036 (8-13) sensor AA0024.png|250px]]||NH036||AA0024||53 || 57 || 58|| 20+ tracks noticed by Turtle Patrol on 8/13. Only about 1/4 of the eggs hatched.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH055R (8-16) sensor AA0026.png|250px]]||NH055R||AA0026|| --- || --- || Aug 12|| Only 7 of 129 eggs were viable.  No hatching activity noticed in data.
+|[[File:2015 - NH055R (8-16) sensor AA0026.png|250px]]||NH055R||AA0026|| --- || --- || 50|| Only 7 of 129 eggs were viable.  No hatching activity noticed in data.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH041 (8-16) sensor AA0020.png|250px]]||NH041||AA0020|| || Aug 13 or Aug 14 || Aug 15||  Unusually long period of hatching activity.  Nest boiled at 10:48 PM on the 15th.
+|[[File:2015 - NH041 (8-16) sensor AA0020.png|250px]]||NH041||AA0020|| 52|| 56 or 57 || 59||  Unusually long period of hatching activity.  Nest boiled at 10:48 PM on Aug 15th.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH056 (8-17) sensor AA0027.png|250px]]||NH056||AA0027|| || Aug 17 || Aug 17 || 132 turtles hatched.  8 eggs didn't make it.
+|[[File:2015 - NH056 (8-17) sensor AA0027.png|250px]]||NH056||AA0027||50 || 54 || 55 || 132 turtles hatched.  8 eggs didn't make it.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH058 (8-17) sensor AA0028.png|250px]]||NH058||AA0028|| || Aug 18 or Aug 19 || Aug 18 || The graph is from the 17th.  data quieted on Tuesday the 18th.  There were still 28 hatchlings in the nest when excavated on the 21st.
+|[[File:2015 - NH058 (8-17) sensor AA0028.png|250px]]||NH058||AA0028||51 || 55 || 55 || The graph is from August 17th (day 53).  data quieted on Tuesday the 18th.  There were still 28 hatchlings in the nest when excavated on the 21st.
 |}

← Older revision		Revision as of 04:18, 23 January 2016
Line 1:		Line 1:

	We monitored nests at the Cape Hatteras National Seashore during 2015. For detailed day-by-day records of our predictions, please go to [https://groups.google.com/forum/?pli=1#!forum/turtlesense our Google Group]		We monitored nests at the Cape Hatteras National Seashore during 2015. For detailed day-by-day records of our predictions, please go to [https://groups.google.com/forum/?pli=1#!forum/turtlesense our Google Group]
		+
		+	==Prediction methodology==
		+	Data was uploaded to our server every 4 hours after 40 days of incubation. An automated process creates graphs of the data. Predictions were made by Samuel Wantman by manually looking at those graphs. The data was typically interpreted only once a day, at the end of the day (around Midnight PST or 3AM local time). If frequent wide fluctuations in the data had been observed for the preceding day (usually following a large dip in the data), nestlings were predicted to emerge 5 days after the start of the activity. This was typically 4 days after the observation. Sometimes a day of looking at the data was missed so a prediction might only be for 3 days after. If 60 days went by without any signs of hatching activity a prediction was made that the nest would be unproductive.

	==Graphs of monitored nests==		==Graphs of monitored nests==

@@ Line 2: / Line 2: @@
 We monitored nests at the Cape Hatteras National Seashore during 2015. For detailed day-by-day records of our predictions, please go to [https://groups.google.com/forum/?pli=1#!forum/turtlesense our Google Group]
-Here are graphs of nests that were monitored:
+==Graphs of monitored nests==
 {| class="wikitable sortable"
@@ Line 16: / Line 17: @@
 |[[File:2015 - NH007R after emergence.png|250px]]||NH007R||AA0009||---||---||July 20||  There was too much noise in this nest to be able to make any predictions.  Very early -- day 51.  20+ emerged the following day.  No obvious explanation for all the noise.  The sensor had moved from its installation position in the nest.  Might be a faulty sensor.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - AA0005 after emergence (7-22).png|250px]]||NH002||AA0005|| ||July 21||July 21||(''Note, the days listed in the x-axis of this chart is off by 8 days.  Add 8 to the numbers you see.'') Emergence was predicted for Tuesday evening, July 21st. Turtle patrol reported 1 hatching track and a depression on 07/22. (More might have come out, there was a severe rain storm the previous night.)
+|[[File:2015 - AA0005 after emergence (7-22).png|250px]]||NH002||AA0005||48 (56) revised next day ||52 (60)||52 (60)||(''Note, the days listed in the x-axis of this chart is off by 8 days.  Add 8 to the numbers you see.'') Emergence was predicted for Tuesday evening, July 21st. Turtle patrol reported 1 hatching track and a depression on 07/22. (More might have come out, there was a severe rain storm the previous night.)
 |-
-|[[File:2015_-_NH004_after_emergence_(7-24)_sensor_AA0007.png|250px]]||NH004||AA0007|| ||July 23||July 22||Emergence was predicted for Thursday evening, July 23rd.  The first 15 or so were observed the evening before.  The turtle patrol observed tracks for over 25 hatchlings on the 23rd.
+|[[File:2015_-_NH004_after_emergence_(7-24)_sensor_AA0007.png|250px]]||NH004||AA0007||52 ||55||54||Emergence was predicted for Thursday evening, July 23rd.  The first 15 or so were observed the evening before.  The turtle patrol observed tracks for over 25 hatchlings on the 23rd.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH003 (7-28 final) sensor AA0006.png|250px]]||NH003||AA0006|| ||July 24||July 23||Emergence was predicted for Friday evening, July 24th.  The first few hatchlings were observed the evening before.  There was a boil on the 25th.
+|[[File:2015 - NH003 (7-28 final) sensor AA0006.png|250px]]||NH003||AA0006|| 56||60||59||Emergence was predicted for Friday evening, July 24th.  The first few hatchlings were observed the evening before.  There was a boil on the 25th.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH014 (7-28) sensor AA0013.png|250px]]||NH014||AA0013|| ||July 26||July 26|| There was a boil the night of the 26th, sometime after 9PM and before 6:30AM the next morning, with too many tracks to count.
+|[[File:2015 - NH014 (7-28) sensor AA0013.png|250px]]||NH014||AA0013||50 ||54||54|| There was a boil the night of the 26th, sometime after 9PM and before 6:30AM the next morning, with too many tracks to count.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH015 (7-31) sensor AA0011.png|250px]]||NH015||AA0011|| ||July 30||July 29|| Three hatchlings emerged on the 29th and there was a boil on the 30th.
+|[[File:2015 - NH015 (7-31) sensor AA0011.png|250px]]||NH015||AA0011|| 54||57||56|| Three hatchlings emerged on the 29th and there was a boil on the 30th.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH022 (7-31) sensor AA0016.png|250px]]||NH022||AA0016|| ||July 29||July 29|| There was minimal data to use to generate a prediction, but even so the prediction was accurate.  30+ hatchlings emerged on the 29th.
+|[[File:2015 - NH022 (7-31) sensor AA0016.png|250px]]||NH022||AA0016||48 ||51||51|| There was minimal data to use to generate a prediction, but even so the prediction was accurate.  30+ hatchlings emerged on the 29th.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH023 (8-11) sensor AA0017.png|250px]]||NH023||AA0017||  ||Aug 7 || Aug 6 || The morning of 8/7 a hatchling was found wandering near the dunes.  Rain washed out the tracks so it is not certain how many emerged the evening of 8/6.  There was a record of 9 hatchlings on the 9th and 5 on the 10th.    A total of 85 eggshells were counted.  It seems likely that most of the hatchlings left on Thursday evening (8/6).
+|[[File:2015 - NH023 (8-11) sensor AA0017.png|250px]]||NH023||AA0017|| 53 ||58 || 57 || The morning of 8/7 a hatchling was found wandering near the dunes.  Rain washed out the tracks so it is not certain how many emerged the evening of 8/6.  There was a record of 9 hatchlings on the 9th and 5 on the 10th.    A total of 85 eggshells were counted.  It seems likely that most of the hatchlings left on Thursday evening (8/6).
 |-
 ||[[File:2015 - NH024 (8-10) sensor AA0025.png|250px]]||NH024||AA0025|| || Aug 6 || Aug 7 ||  More than 20 tracks were counted the morning of the 8th.  On 8/9 the activity recorded was from the nest being washed out. Very few hatched or unhatched were found after the washout, so it is unclear exactly what happened.

@@ Line 9: / Line 9: @@
 ! style="text-align:left;" data-sort-type="number"|NPS code
 ! style="text-align:left;"|Sensor
-! style="text-align:center;"| Date <br />Predicted
+! style="text-align:left;"|Day of <br />Prediction
-! style="text-align:center;"|Date<br />Observed
+! style="text-align:center;"| Day that was<br />Predicted
 ! style="text-align:left;" class="unsortable"|Notes;
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH007R after emergence.png|250px]]||NH007R||AA0009||---||July 20||  There was too much noise in this nest to be able to make any predictions.  Very early -- day 51.  20+ emerged the following day.  No obvious explanation for all the noise.  The sensor had moved from its installation position in the nest.  Might be a faulty sensor.
+|[[File:2015 - NH007R after emergence.png|250px]]||NH007R||AA0009||---||---||July 20||  There was too much noise in this nest to be able to make any predictions.  Very early -- day 51.  20+ emerged the following day.  No obvious explanation for all the noise.  The sensor had moved from its installation position in the nest.  Might be a faulty sensor.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - AA0005 after emergence (7-22).png|250px]]||NH002||AA0005||July 21||July 21||(''Note, the days listed in the x-axis of this chart is off by 8 days.  Add 8 to the numbers you see.'') Emergence was predicted for Tuesday evening, July 21st. Turtle patrol reported 1 hatching track and a depression on 07/22. (More might have come out, there was a severe rain storm the previous night.)
+|[[File:2015 - AA0005 after emergence (7-22).png|250px]]||NH002||AA0005|| ||July 21||July 21||(''Note, the days listed in the x-axis of this chart is off by 8 days.  Add 8 to the numbers you see.'') Emergence was predicted for Tuesday evening, July 21st. Turtle patrol reported 1 hatching track and a depression on 07/22. (More might have come out, there was a severe rain storm the previous night.)
 |-
-|[[File:2015_-_NH004_after_emergence_(7-24)_sensor_AA0007.png|250px]]||NH004||AA0007||July 23||July 22||Emergence was predicted for Thursday evening, July 23rd.  The first 15 or so were observed the evening before.  The turtle patrol observed tracks for over 25 hatchlings on the 23rd.
+|[[File:2015_-_NH004_after_emergence_(7-24)_sensor_AA0007.png|250px]]||NH004||AA0007|| ||July 23||July 22||Emergence was predicted for Thursday evening, July 23rd.  The first 15 or so were observed the evening before.  The turtle patrol observed tracks for over 25 hatchlings on the 23rd.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH003 (7-28 final) sensor AA0006.png|250px]]||NH003||AA0006||July 24||July 23||Emergence was predicted for Friday evening, July 24th.  The first few hatchlings were observed the evening before.  There was a boil on the 25th.
+|[[File:2015 - NH003 (7-28 final) sensor AA0006.png|250px]]||NH003||AA0006|| ||July 24||July 23||Emergence was predicted for Friday evening, July 24th.  The first few hatchlings were observed the evening before.  There was a boil on the 25th.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH014 (7-28) sensor AA0013.png|250px]]||NH014||AA0013||July 26||July 26|| There was a boil the night of the 26th, sometime after 9PM and before 6:30AM the next morning, with too many tracks to count.
+|[[File:2015 - NH014 (7-28) sensor AA0013.png|250px]]||NH014||AA0013|| ||July 26||July 26|| There was a boil the night of the 26th, sometime after 9PM and before 6:30AM the next morning, with too many tracks to count.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH015 (7-31) sensor AA0011.png|250px]]||NH015||AA0011||July 30||July 29|| Three hatchlings emerged on the 29th and there was a boil on the 30th.
+|[[File:2015 - NH015 (7-31) sensor AA0011.png|250px]]||NH015||AA0011|| ||July 30||July 29|| Three hatchlings emerged on the 29th and there was a boil on the 30th.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH022 (7-31) sensor AA0016.png|250px]]||NH022||AA0016||July 29||July 29|| There was minimal data to use to generate a prediction, but even so the prediction was accurate.  30+ hatchlings emerged on the 29th.
+|[[File:2015 - NH022 (7-31) sensor AA0016.png|250px]]||NH022||AA0016|| ||July 29||July 29|| There was minimal data to use to generate a prediction, but even so the prediction was accurate.  30+ hatchlings emerged on the 29th.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH023 (8-11) sensor AA0017.png|250px]]||NH023||AA0017|| Aug 7 || Aug 6 || The morning of 8/7 a hatchling was found wandering near the dunes.  Rain washed out the tracks so it is not certain how many emerged the evening of 8/6.  There was a record of 9 hatchlings on the 9th and 5 on the 10th.    A total of 85 eggshells were counted.  It seems likely that most of the hatchlings left on Thursday evening (8/6).
+|[[File:2015 - NH023 (8-11) sensor AA0017.png|250px]]||NH023||AA0017||  ||Aug 7 || Aug 6 || The morning of 8/7 a hatchling was found wandering near the dunes.  Rain washed out the tracks so it is not certain how many emerged the evening of 8/6.  There was a record of 9 hatchlings on the 9th and 5 on the 10th.    A total of 85 eggshells were counted.  It seems likely that most of the hatchlings left on Thursday evening (8/6).
 |-
-||[[File:2015 - NH024 (8-10) sensor AA0025.png|250px]]||NH024||AA0025|| Aug 6 || Aug 7 ||  More than 20 tracks were counted the morning of the 8th.  On 8/9 the activity recorded was from the nest being washed out. Very few hatched or unhatched were found after the washout, so it is unclear exactly what happened.
+||[[File:2015 - NH024 (8-10) sensor AA0025.png|250px]]||NH024||AA0025|| || Aug 6 || Aug 7 ||  More than 20 tracks were counted the morning of the 8th.  On 8/9 the activity recorded was from the nest being washed out. Very few hatched or unhatched were found after the washout, so it is unclear exactly what happened.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH013 (8-12) sensor AA0010.png|250px]]||NH013||AA0010|| --- || --- || This nest was thought to be infertile, and it was. Excavated on Aug 12
+|[[File:2015 - NH013 (8-12) sensor AA0010.png|250px]]||NH013||AA0010|| --- || --- || --- || This nest was thought to be infertile, and it was. Excavated on Aug 12
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH036 (8-13) sensor AA0024.png|250px]]||NH036||AA0024|| Aug 12 || Aug 12|| 20+ tracks noticed by Turtle Patrol on 8/13. Only about 1/4 of the eggs hatched.
+|[[File:2015 - NH036 (8-13) sensor AA0024.png|250px]]||NH036||AA0024|| || Aug 12 || Aug 12|| 20+ tracks noticed by Turtle Patrol on 8/13. Only about 1/4 of the eggs hatched.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH055R (8-16) sensor AA0026.png|250px]]||NH055R||AA0026|| --- || Aug 12|| Only 7 of 129 eggs were viable.  No hatching activity noticed in data.
+|[[File:2015 - NH055R (8-16) sensor AA0026.png|250px]]||NH055R||AA0026|| --- || --- || Aug 12|| Only 7 of 129 eggs were viable.  No hatching activity noticed in data.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH041 (8-16) sensor AA0020.png|250px]]||NH041||AA0020|| Aug 13 or Aug 14 || Aug 15||  Unusually long period of hatching activity.  Nest boiled at 10:48 PM on the 15th.
+|[[File:2015 - NH041 (8-16) sensor AA0020.png|250px]]||NH041||AA0020|| || Aug 13 or Aug 14 || Aug 15||  Unusually long period of hatching activity.  Nest boiled at 10:48 PM on the 15th.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH056 (8-17) sensor AA0027.png|250px]]||NH056||AA0027|| Aug 17 || Aug 17 || 132 turtles hatched.  8 eggs didn't make it.
+|[[File:2015 - NH056 (8-17) sensor AA0027.png|250px]]||NH056||AA0027|| || Aug 17 || Aug 17 || 132 turtles hatched.  8 eggs didn't make it.
 |-
-|[[File:2015 - NH058 (8-17) sensor AA0028.png|250px]]||NH058||AA0028|| Aug 18 or Aug 19 || Aug 18 || The graph is from the 17th.  data quieted on Tuesday the 18th.  There were still 28 hatchlings in the nest when excavated on the 21st.
+|[[File:2015 - NH058 (8-17) sensor AA0028.png|250px]]||NH058||AA0028|| || Aug 18 or Aug 19 || Aug 18 || The graph is from the 17th.  data quieted on Tuesday the 18th.  There were still 28 hatchlings in the nest when excavated on the 21st.
 |}