Turtle Sense / 2015 Season Results

We monitored nests at the Cape Hatteras National Seashore during 2015. For detailed day-by-day records of our predictions, please go to our Google Group

Prediction methodology

Data was uploaded to our server every 4 hours after 40 days of incubation. An automated process creates graphs of the data. Predictions were made by Samuel Wantman by manually looking at those graphs. The data was typically interpreted only once a day, at the end of the day (around Midnight PST or 3AM local time). If frequent wide fluctuations in the data had been observed for the preceding day (usually following a large dip in the data), nestlings were predicted to emerge 5 days after the start of the activity. This was typically 4 days after the observation. Sometimes a day of looking at the data was missed so a prediction might only be for 3 days after. If 60 days went by without any signs of hatching activity a prediction was made that the nest would be unproductive.

Graphs of monitored nests

Note: The x-axis is the number of days since the nest was discovered. This number is likely off by a few hours. Nests are discovered during turtle patrol and a sensor is installed in the nest at that time and registered in the database. Since the nest was laid sometime during the previous night, the exact incubation time might be off. Similarly, the date that emergence was first observed is often the morning after when the turtle patrol notes tracks in the sand. Both of these errors tend to cancel each other out. Note that NH002 is off by 8 days because it was not registered until 8 days after the nest was discovered. Activity several days after emergence at the right edge of charts is from excavation of the nests.

	NPS code	Sensor	Day of Prediction	Day that was Predicted	Day 1st Observed	Notes;
	NH007R	AA0009	---	---	51	There was too much noise in this nest to be able to make any predictions. This was a very early nest -- day 51. No obvious explanation for all the noise. The sensor had moved from its installation position in the nest. Might be a faulty sensor.
	NH002	AA0005	48 (56) revised next day	52 (60)	52 (60)	(Note, the days listed in the x-axis of this chart is off by 8 days. Add 8 to the numbers you see.) Emergence was predicted for Tuesday evening, July 21st. Turtle patrol reported 1 hatching track and a depression on 07/22. (More might have come out, there was a severe rain storm the previous night.)
	NH004	AA0007	52	55	54	Emergence was predicted for Thursday evening, July 23rd. The first 15 or so were observed the evening before. The turtle patrol observed tracks for over 25 hatchlings on the 23rd.
	NH003	AA0006	56	60	59	Emergence was predicted for Friday evening, July 24th. The first few hatchlings were observed the evening before. There was a boil on the 25th.
	NH014	AA0013	50	54	54	There was a boil the night of the 26th, sometime after 9PM and before 6:30AM the next morning, with too many tracks to count.
	NH015	AA0011	54	57	56	Three hatchlings emerged on the 29th and there was a boil on the 30th.
	NH022	AA0016	48	51	51	There was minimal data to use to generate a prediction, but even so the prediction was accurate. 30+ hatchlings emerged on the 29th.
	NH023	AA0017	53	58	57	The morning of 8/7 a hatchling was found wandering near the dunes. Rain washed out the tracks so it is not certain how many emerged the evening of 8/6. There was a record of 9 hatchlings on the 9th and 5 on the 10th. A total of 85 eggshells were counted. It seems likely that most of the hatchlings left on Thursday evening (8/6).
	NH024	AA0025	50	55	56	More than 20 tracks were counted the morning of the 8th. On 8/9 the activity recorded was from the nest being washed out. Very few hatched or unhatched were found after the washout, so it is unclear exactly what happened.
	NH013	AA0010	---	---	---	This nest was thought to be infertile, and it was. Excavated on Aug 12
	NH036	AA0024	53	57	58	20+ tracks noticed by Turtle Patrol on 8/13. Only about 1/4 of the eggs hatched.
	NH055R	AA0026	---	---	50	Only 7 of 129 eggs were viable. No hatching activity noticed in data.
	NH041	AA0020	52	56 or 57	59	Unusually long period of hatching activity. Nest boiled at 10:48 PM on Aug 15th.
	NH056	AA0027	50	54	55	132 turtles hatched. 8 eggs didn't make it.
	NH058	AA0028	51	55	55	The graph is from August 17th (day 53). data quieted on Tuesday the 18th. There were still 28 hatchlings in the nest when excavated on the 21st.
	NH074	AA0029	48	52	55	7 predated eggs may have caused premature prediction.
	NH078	AA0014	50	54 or 55	59	75 hatchlings rescued from compacted sand and overwashes. High tides were approaching and data showed that the hatchlings emergence was delayed. Hatchlings likely would have died from the high tides. 20 unhatched eggs were reburied but non hatched. All were leucystic.
	NH085	AA0008	52	56	58	hard crust may have delayed emergence.
	NH094	AA0015	51	55	56	Patrol examined the nest on day 52 after 14 overwashes and confirmed there was a live hatchling.
	NH105	AA0018	---	---	---	lots of overwashes seen in data. No prediction made. No live hatchlings.
	NH134R	AA0019	58	61 or later	65	roughly half hatched and emerged. Later nests seem to emerge longer than 5 days after hatching activity noticed in data.
	NH138	AA0009	54	58 or later	61	Excavated on day 61 due to overwash. Earlier traces of emergence may not have been seen.
	NH139R	AA0005	54	58 or later	59
	NH142R	AA0021	53	56 or later	57?	Signs of emergence obliterated by high tides. Nest check on day 57 revealed hatchlings. 6 hatchlings remained when excavated on day 59.
	NH143R	AA0006	---	---	57?	Unit stopped reporting on day 45. No prediction made.
	NH151R	AA0007	---	---	---	No predictions. Only 2 live hatchlings (one emerged). Major disturbances to nest from Hurricane Joaquin.
	NH157	AA0013	---	---	---	Nest and equipment completely washed away by severe weather. Heavy erosion and scarping.
	NH158R	AA0011	---	---	---	No predictions. Nest excavated due to severe sand accumulation and compaction. No eggs hatched.
	NH161R	AA0029	---	---	---	Nest and equipment completely washed away by severe weather.