Difference between revisions of "Turtle Sense / 2015 Season Results"
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==Graphs of monitored nests== | ==Graphs of monitored nests== | ||
− | ''Note: The x-axis is the number of days since the nest was discovered. This number is likely off by a few hours. Nests are discovered during turtle patrol and a sensor is installed in the nest at that time and registered in the database. Since the nest was laid sometime during the previous night, the exact incubation time might be off. Similarly, the date that emergence was first observed is often the morning after when the turtle patrol notes tracks in the sand. Both of these errors tend to cancel each other out. Note that NH002 is off by 8 days because it was not registered until 8 days after the nest was discovered.'' | + | ''Note: The x-axis is the number of days since the nest was discovered. This number is likely off by a few hours. Nests are discovered during turtle patrol and a sensor is installed in the nest at that time and registered in the database. Since the nest was laid sometime during the previous night, the exact incubation time might be off. Similarly, the date that emergence was first observed is often the morning after when the turtle patrol notes tracks in the sand. Both of these errors tend to cancel each other out. Note that NH002 is off by 8 days because it was not registered until 8 days after the nest was discovered. Activity several days after emergence at the right edge of charts is from excavation of the nests.'' |
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|[[File:2015 - NH105 sensor AA0018.png|250px]]||NH105||AA0018||--- || --- || --- || lots of overwashes seen in data. No prediction made. No live hatchlings. | |[[File:2015 - NH105 sensor AA0018.png|250px]]||NH105||AA0018||--- || --- || --- || lots of overwashes seen in data. No prediction made. No live hatchlings. | ||
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− | |[[File:2015 - NH134R sensor AA0019.png|250px]]|| | + | |[[File:2015 - NH134R sensor AA0019.png|250px]]||NH134R||AA0019||58 || 61 or later || 65 || roughly half hatched and emerged. Later nests seem to emerge longer than 5 days after hatching activity noticed in data. |
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|[[File:2015 - NH138 sensor AA0009.png|250px]]||NH138||AA0009||54 || 58 or later || 61 || Excavated on day 61 due to overwash. Earlier traces of emergence may not have been seen. | |[[File:2015 - NH138 sensor AA0009.png|250px]]||NH138||AA0009||54 || 58 or later || 61 || Excavated on day 61 due to overwash. Earlier traces of emergence may not have been seen. | ||
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|[[File:2015 - NH143R sensor AA0006.png|250px]]||NH143R||AA0006||--- || --- || 57? || Unit stopped reporting on day 45. No prediction made. | |[[File:2015 - NH143R sensor AA0006.png|250px]]||NH143R||AA0006||--- || --- || 57? || Unit stopped reporting on day 45. No prediction made. | ||
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− | |[[File:2015 - NH151R sensor AA0007.png|250px]]|| | + | |[[File:2015 - NH151R sensor AA0007.png|250px]]||NH151R||AA0007||--- || --- || --- || No predictions. Only 2 live hatchlings (one emerged). Major disturbances to nest from Hurricane Joaquin. |
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|[[File:2015 - NH157 sensor AA0013.png|250px]]||NH157||AA0013||--- || --- || --- || Nest and equipment completely washed away by severe weather. Heavy erosion and scarping. | |[[File:2015 - NH157 sensor AA0013.png|250px]]||NH157||AA0013||--- || --- || --- || Nest and equipment completely washed away by severe weather. Heavy erosion and scarping. |
Latest revision as of 06:05, 23 January 2016
We monitored nests at the Cape Hatteras National Seashore during 2015. For detailed day-by-day records of our predictions, please go to our Google Group
Prediction methodology
Data was uploaded to our server every 4 hours after 40 days of incubation. An automated process creates graphs of the data. Predictions were made by Samuel Wantman by manually looking at those graphs. The data was typically interpreted only once a day, at the end of the day (around Midnight PST or 3AM local time). If frequent wide fluctuations in the data had been observed for the preceding day (usually following a large dip in the data), nestlings were predicted to emerge 5 days after the start of the activity. This was typically 4 days after the observation. Sometimes a day of looking at the data was missed so a prediction might only be for 3 days after. If 60 days went by without any signs of hatching activity a prediction was made that the nest would be unproductive.
Graphs of monitored nests
Note: The x-axis is the number of days since the nest was discovered. This number is likely off by a few hours. Nests are discovered during turtle patrol and a sensor is installed in the nest at that time and registered in the database. Since the nest was laid sometime during the previous night, the exact incubation time might be off. Similarly, the date that emergence was first observed is often the morning after when the turtle patrol notes tracks in the sand. Both of these errors tend to cancel each other out. Note that NH002 is off by 8 days because it was not registered until 8 days after the nest was discovered. Activity several days after emergence at the right edge of charts is from excavation of the nests.