Turtle Sense / 2015 Season Results

We monitored nests at the Cape Hatteras National Seashore during 2015. For detailed day-by-day records of our predictions, please go to our Google Group

Graphs of monitored nests

Note: The x-axis is the number of days since the nest was discovered. This number is likely off by a few hours. Nests are discovered during turtle patrol and a sensor is installed in the nest at that time and registered in the database. Since the nest was laid sometime during the previous night, the exact incubation time might be off. Similarly, the date that emergence was first observed is often the morning after when the turtle patrol notes tracks in the sand. Both of these errors tend to cancel each other out. Note that NH002 is off by 8 days because it was not registered until 8 days after the nest was discovered.

	NPS code	Sensor	Day of Prediction	Day that was Predicted	Day 1st Observed	Notes;
	NH007R	AA0009	---	---	July 20	There was too much noise in this nest to be able to make any predictions. Very early -- day 51. 20+ emerged the following day. No obvious explanation for all the noise. The sensor had moved from its installation position in the nest. Might be a faulty sensor.
	NH002	AA0005	48 (56) revised next day	52 (60)	52 (60)	(Note, the days listed in the x-axis of this chart is off by 8 days. Add 8 to the numbers you see.) Emergence was predicted for Tuesday evening, July 21st. Turtle patrol reported 1 hatching track and a depression on 07/22. (More might have come out, there was a severe rain storm the previous night.)
	NH004	AA0007	52	55	54	Emergence was predicted for Thursday evening, July 23rd. The first 15 or so were observed the evening before. The turtle patrol observed tracks for over 25 hatchlings on the 23rd.
	NH003	AA0006	56	60	59	Emergence was predicted for Friday evening, July 24th. The first few hatchlings were observed the evening before. There was a boil on the 25th.
	NH014	AA0013	50	54	54	There was a boil the night of the 26th, sometime after 9PM and before 6:30AM the next morning, with too many tracks to count.
	NH015	AA0011	54	57	56	Three hatchlings emerged on the 29th and there was a boil on the 30th.
	NH022	AA0016	48	51	51	There was minimal data to use to generate a prediction, but even so the prediction was accurate. 30+ hatchlings emerged on the 29th.
	NH023	AA0017	53	58	57	The morning of 8/7 a hatchling was found wandering near the dunes. Rain washed out the tracks so it is not certain how many emerged the evening of 8/6. There was a record of 9 hatchlings on the 9th and 5 on the 10th. A total of 85 eggshells were counted. It seems likely that most of the hatchlings left on Thursday evening (8/6).
	NH024	AA0025		Aug 6	Aug 7	More than 20 tracks were counted the morning of the 8th. On 8/9 the activity recorded was from the nest being washed out. Very few hatched or unhatched were found after the washout, so it is unclear exactly what happened.
	NH013	AA0010	---	---	---	This nest was thought to be infertile, and it was. Excavated on Aug 12
	NH036	AA0024		Aug 12	Aug 12	20+ tracks noticed by Turtle Patrol on 8/13. Only about 1/4 of the eggs hatched.
	NH055R	AA0026	---	---	Aug 12	Only 7 of 129 eggs were viable. No hatching activity noticed in data.
	NH041	AA0020		Aug 13 or Aug 14	Aug 15	Unusually long period of hatching activity. Nest boiled at 10:48 PM on the 15th.
	NH056	AA0027		Aug 17	Aug 17	132 turtles hatched. 8 eggs didn't make it.
	NH058	AA0028		Aug 18 or Aug 19	Aug 18	The graph is from the 17th. data quieted on Tuesday the 18th. There were still 28 hatchlings in the nest when excavated on the 21st.